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APRIL 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for total new motor vehicles sales increased 0.5% to 78,697 in April 2004 compared with March 2004. The trend estimate for total new motor vehicle sales has recorded an increase for each month since the beginning of the year.

An increase of 4.6% was recorded in the trend estimate for total new motor vehicle sales in April 2004 compared with April 2003.

Sales of passenger vehicles recorded an increase in the trend estimate of 0.4% in April 2004 compared with March 2004. The trend estimate for sales of other vehicles increased by 0.6% over the same period.

Queensland (14.6%) and Northern Territory (12.7%) recorded the highest increases in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in April 2004 compared with April 2003. The Australian Capital Territory recorded the only decrease in sales with a fall of 4.3% over the twelve month period.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles decreased by 1.9% to 77,699 in April 2004 compared with March 2004.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles increased by 2.8% in April 2004 compared with April 2003. Passenger vehicle sales decreased by 1.6% and other vehicle sales increased by 10.9% over the twelve month period.


NOTES

TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2003	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6
	July	51,450	28,071	79,521	-9.9	-19.7	-13.6
	August	49,869	26,304	76,173	-3.1	-6.3	-4.2
	September	51,749	26,042	77,791	3.8	-1.0	2.1
	October	52,180	27,045	79,225	0.8	3.9	1.8
	November	48,482	27,630	76,112	-7.1	2.2	-3.9
	December	49,834	27,952	77,786	2.8	1.2	2.2
2004	January	40,715	24,082	64,797	-18.3	-13.8	-16.7
	February	47,876	28,001	75,877	17.6	16.3	17.1
	March	53,728	32,318	86,046	12.2	15.4	13.4
	April	44,079	27,226	71,305	-18.0	-15.8	-17.1
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	February	46,778	24,890	71,668	-0.8	-2.9	-1.5
	March	48,294	25,662	73,956	3.2	3.1	3.2
	April	49,190	26,406	75,596	1.9	2.9	2.2
	May	50,159	26,807	76,966	2.0	1.5	1.8
	June	50,337	27,249	77,586	0.4	1.6	0.8
	July	49,892	27,744	77,636	-0.9	1.8	0.1
	August	51,155	27,202	78,357	2.5	-2.0	0.9
	September	53,150	27,620	80,770	3.9	1.5	3.1
	October	49,157	27,661	76,818	-7.5	0.1	-4.9
	November	48,209	28,233	76,442	-1.9	2.1	-0.5
	December	45,993	27,069	73,062	-4.6	-4.1	-4.4
2004	January	49,401	29,812	79,213	7.4	10.1	8.4
	February	50,125	29,523	79,648	1.5	-1.0	0.5
	March	49,345	29,868	79,213	-1.6	1.2	-0.5
	April	48,424	29,275	77,699	-1.9	-2.0	-1.9
Trend
2003	February	47,535	25,416	72,951	1.4	1.4	1.4
	March	48,232	25,850	74,082	1.5	1.7	1.6
	April	48,938	26,297	75,235	1.5	1.7	1.6
	May	49,706	26,721	76,427	1.6	1.6	1.6
	June	50,517	27,131	77,648	1.6	1.5	1.6
	July	51,099	27,447	78,546	1.2	1.2	1.2
	August	51,224	27,639	78,863	0.2	0.7	0.4
	September	50,879	27,760	78,639	-0.7	0.4	-0.3
	October	50,256	27,929	78,185	-1.2	0.6	-0.6
	November	49,561	28,194	77,755	-1.4	0.9	-0.5
	December	49,012	28,537	77,549	-1.1	1.2	-0.3
2004	January	48,732	28,907	77,639	-0.6	1.3	0.1
	February	48,713	29,249	77,962	0.0	1.2	0.4
	March	48,779	29,527	78,306	0.1	1.0	0.4
	April	48,979	29,718	78,697	0.4	0.6	0.5

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2003	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058
	July	26,983	21,248	15,716	5,298	6,973	1,407	635	1,261	79,521
	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
	November	25,099	20,254	15,058	5,214	6,925	1,717	630	1,215	76,112
	December	25,113	21,071	15,265	5,404	7,161	1,860	593	1,319	77,786
2004	January	21,216	16,857	13,403	4,334	6,249	1,193	498	1,047	64,797
	February	24,955	19,727	15,901	5,059	7,113	1,297	686	1,139	75,877
	March	28,118	22,137	18,611	5,561	8,086	1,343	912	1,278	86,046
	April	23,033	19,083	14,831	4,670	6,529	1,229	812	1,118	71,305
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	February	23,981	19,530	13,648	4,976	6,449	1,263	647	1,174	71,668
	March	24,587	20,107	14,414	4,978	6,577	1,351	689	1,253	73,956
	April	25,738	20,292	14,636	5,108	6,481	1,396	686	1,259	75,596
	May	25,747	20,802	14,855	5,121	7,050	1,423	681	1,287	76,966
	June	26,026	21,072	14,633	5,103	7,293	1,491	662	1,306	77,586
	July	25,741	20,774	15,410	5,199	7,133	1,485	648	1,246	77,636
	August	26,321	20,401	15,698	5,329	7,160	1,571	602	1,275	78,357
	September	27,375	21,193	15,891	5,406	7,309	1,618	685	1,293	80,770
	October	24,642	20,025	15,683	5,334	7,263	1,974	634	1,263	76,818
	November	24,676	20,280	15,638	5,240	7,083	1,649	645	1,231	76,442
	December	23,917	19,736	14,283	5,112	6,874	1,268	639	1,233	73,062
2004	January	26,231	20,698	16,293	5,317	7,286	1,527	637	1,224	79,213
	February	26,322	20,824	16,643	5,213	7,180	1,518	739	1,209	79,648
	March	25,931	20,633	16,770	5,198	7,284	1,405	799	1,193	79,213
	April	25,201	20,634	16,282	5,113	7,073	1,427	738	1,231	77,699
Trend
2003	February	24,564	19,863	13,939	4,887	6,512	1,301	668	1,217	72,951
	March	24,890	20,123	14,207	4,990	6,618	1,338	676	1,240	74,082
	April	25,231	20,374	14,494	5,069	6,757	1,375	676	1,259	75,235
	May	25,626	20,599	14,785	5,131	6,918	1,418	673	1,277	76,427
	June	26,052	20,795	15,096	5,188	7,074	1,483	667	1,293	77,648
	July	26,346	20,897	15,356	5,241	7,187	1,556	660	1,303	78,546
	August	26,390	20,877	15,500	5,285	7,236	1,620	651	1,304	78,863
	September	26,214	20,767	15,535	5,306	7,220	1,657	644	1,296	78,639
	October	25,954	20,633	15,537	5,304	7,179	1,657	640	1,281	78,185
	November	25,706	20,528	15,568	5,283	7,145	1,619	646	1,260	77,755
	December	25,541	20,482	15,678	5,250	7,138	1,559	661	1,240	77,549
2004	January	25,498	20,484	15,889	5,220	7,142	1,498	685	1,223	77,639
	February	25,556	20,526	16,152	5,198	7,155	1,451	711	1,213	77,962
	March	25,623	20,580	16,396	5,178	7,165	1,420	736	1,208	78,306
	April	25,730	20,657	16,612	5,164	7,179	1,388	762	1,205	78,697